Future of Social Media

In nearly every one of the talks I have given over the last few months, my corporate clients will inevitably ask me about what my prediction of the future of social media will be.  I expect they want to hear about how social media will take over the world and all their customers will be plugged into the social media world.  I have had a lot of time to think about this matter and have seen how the social media landscape has changed over the last few years.  So here is my take….no punches pulled:

 

–  There is no money to be made in social media inspite of what so-called gurus talk about potential business models for Twitter or Facebook.  By money I mean profit after expenses.  The growth of Twitter and Facebook mean that they are always adding new machines and technology to keep up with their every growing but never paying customers.  Sure they make “some” money in different ways, but the truth is, the equation:  Cost > Income will lead to a situation where someone needs to pick up the tab for the balance.

–  The reason why no one wants to pay is because the value of the social connection isn’t high enough to justify forking money over.  Seriously, how many people out there (excluding companies) would want to pay for their Facebook account?  Even if they did, if most of their connections gave up their accounts they would soon give theirs up too.  Twitter is even worse…how much will you pay to receive bite sized spam?

–  Are there any other ways in which these sites can make money?  Sure, but none of them have figured it out yet.  As a consultant, I often tell clients to focus on the “social” aspect of social media…..that doesn’t mean folks at Facebook, MySpace, Twitter, etc….do too…..  One of the reasons why Google was so successful was because they had the technology to keep their expenses extremely low inspite of an exponential growth in their hit rate.  They used technology to stitch together cheap servers to form massive farms that kept their business growing.  Facebook is buying expensive servers as their clientele increases……with no appreciable increase in revenue….

–  Social Media is always about the next big thing…..  In the 1990’s people forget that one of the earliest social media sites was SixDegrees (now part of Vignette), then there was MySpace, now there is Facebook, tomorrow something else….Social Media is evolutionary and we are always on the lookout for the next big thing.  Customer loyalty is practically nil and the barriers to switching is only how long it will take to get your existing network up and running on a new platform as long as it has better features, made even easier today with features like Facebook Connect.

 

I predict in the next five years, a wave of consolidation in the Social Media space.  As with MySpace, I doubt that Facebook and Twitter can continue as independent entities.  I’m not very positive with Twitter.  I really fail to see how much value can be derived from an internet sms service.  Maybe if Microsoft were to add it to their Windows Live suite it might make some sense.  Facebook on the other hand would be best served by being part of Google.  It would be an ideal match technologically.  Either that or Facebook somehow find a way to start a Paypal like service and make use of their platform for e-trading.

 

Having lived through the internet explosion and now seeing the same foolish valuations placed on Social Media sites, its not hard to use historical references to infer what the market may look like in five to ten years.  To those who think I am excessively negative, I just hope that they are right……

 

Tong Hsien-Hui

Further changes to Facebook

So Facebook finally acknowledged that the changes made earlier were ill considered and have issued a list of “improvements” to the previous update that most annoyed users.  Key for me will be additional functionality so that you can customize the feed from applications used by your friends.  Currently whatever application used by your friend is fully described in your newsfeed which causes feeds from other friends to be pushed down the list and sometimes missed.

 

The workaround that Facebook proposed to my criticism of the above problem was to use the friend filter on the left part of the screen.  This filter function will be further enhanced so that it will be easier for you to group your friends and even prioritize the feed.  Other improvements will be a more real-time feed which is more similar to that offered by Twitter.  They are also working to move important updates like friend requests and invites to a more prominent location on the screen.  We were so used to having it on the top right that some of us didn’t realize it had moved to a location in the top center of the page.  I expect it will move back to the top right.

 

So things are back to normal in the Facebook world or as normal as could be expected.  I’m sincerely grateful that Facebook has heard our concerns and taken the trouble to make the necessary amendments to keep all parties happy.  Some commentators have noted that this report was issued by Christopher Cox (Director of Product) instead of Mark Z and tried to read some insidious politics behind it.  In truth, as Director of Product, these changes and associated feedback should be in the area of responsibility of Mr Cox.  Mark as CEO should realize that he is responsible for shareholder returns and profitability and focus on that instead.  Hopefully he has realized that now.

 

Tong Hsien-Hui

Why I dislike the new Facebook format

Its been about a week since the new format of Facebook was rolled out to me.  In that time I went from hating it to accepting it then back to hating it.  As social media is an important part of my job, I trawled the world wide web for what others thought about it.

 

The preliminary results were not surprising.  As with anything new, I didn’t read many complimentary comments on the new format.  A number of these could be attributed to resistance to change which, after time, would turn into grudging acceptance then maybe into liking.  There are of course different categories of communities on Facebook.  The bulk of them are purely social in nature.  However, there are also businesses on Facebook and application developers.  With the various interests involved, it is not surprising that their take on the new format varied as well.

 

From the social perspective, there are both improvements and failures.  The bigger fonts and space allocated for your friends’ update caters for the new and quickly growing membership of older people on Facebook.  Where previously a small one or two liner pegged next to your friends’ names would tell you what they were doing, its now a significant slot allocated for each update.  There is also more information regarding the update as well.  Furthermore, status updates can be independent of you to better reflect news information rather than your information.  This “streaming” of information updates is the same as what Twitter provides.  

 

Kudos have also been given to the more sophisticated filters on the left side of the screen where you can view updates either as a whole or by “friend list”.  If you have segmented your friends into lists, you can easily view just their updates by clicking on the list name at the left.    There is also a “Highlights” column on the right which shows what games, groups, etc…your friends are participating in (although you need to click on the sub icons in the column to find out which friends specifically).  The problem with this Highlights column is that advertising is mixed in with the actual updates (usually at the top) without significant assessment of its suitability.  I have seen an ad for American Girls – Temp12 in the highlights column in the Facebook page of a 12 year old girl.

 

When it comes to weaknesses though, there are a whole bunch now.  For one thing, most Facebookers I know are not that interested to find out the details of what their friends are doing.  Sure, they want to know what status update their friends are providing, but while knowing that their friends took a quiz on their mental age, they don’t want to know or care that the result was their friend has a mental age of 100.  If they were indeed curious they would click on their friends’ profile.   Furthermore, the larger font and space allocation reduces the number of updates they can see at a single glance.  Where previously it was easy to view most of the updates on a single page, they now have to scroll down to see all.  Given the nature of social media, most won’t bother, losing possibly interesting information.  It also becomes an issue of the domination of the frequent posters as with Twitter.  Those that post frequently can often push everyone else off your front page.  Previously the constraint of having 3-4 updates per person meant you could see more of what everyone was doing.

 

Of more irritation is the fact you can no longer selectively determine the updates you want to receive.  Facebook now has an all or nothing policy.  If for instance, you don’t want to see what games friend A is playing but still want to see his updates, it is no longer possible.  In the previous version, Facebook allowed you to select what you want to see and what you don’t.  Now, if you click on the right side of the update you can only choose to remove that person totally from your updates.  This actually is the biggest grouse I hear.  Its a big problem for those with both large and small groups of friends.  Another related issue is that those applications you blocked can still post to your newsfeed.

 

Most companies that actively update their Facebook groups like the new format.  In the same way greater exposure to the media prospectively gives you greater mind share, groups that update frequently with video, pictures, discussions, etc….repeatedly bombard their fans’ facebook homepages.  If for instance, you were a fan of Mashable, you would find that in the course of one day, you might find one third of your homepage taken up with their updates.  While this is contrary to the principles and etiquette of social media, it speaks to the old school marketers who are always looking for presence over interaction.  I expect Facebook signs up a lot more advertising with their new format.

 

I admit that I am biased against the new format.  I dislike it for the reasons given above, basically the lack of control I have over what I want to see.  I am also concerned that Facebook is blindly following the Twitter model without understanding why, inspite of all their “improvements”, Facebook can never be Twitter.  In simple terms, Facebook is a social media platform where each user has his/her own identity and community.  Twitter, for want of a better term, is an opt-in individual spamming platform.  You don’t mind linking up with people you don’t know because you don’t build a personalized profile anyway.  Thats why celebrities, politicians, religious leaders, etc….have no problem having you follow them on Twitter and vice versa, whereas they wouldn’t dream of accepting your friend request on Facebook.  So good luck to Facebook.  If things get worse, users will vote with their fingers and move to another platform.  With barriers to entry falling, you can even create your own social media platform free with Drupal!

 

Tong Hsien-Hui

Questions about Social Media that You Were Afraid to Ask…..2

So now you have made a decision on the platform you wish to use.  At this point, depending on your age group, the next question that springs to mind is either “How to I build a bigger network of friends after I have already linked to the twenty people I regularly interact with” for the younger set…..or “How do I make sure my profile is visible to those I want to view it, but hidden from those I don’t want to view it”.

 

The first question is easier to answer and depends on what your interests are.  Most social media platforms allow you to form and join groups centered around your interest.  Joining such a group will allow you to interact with like minded people within the same platform and if you want, to invite or be invited as a “Friend”.  I know of people who like the game, Pet Society on Facebook and play it every day.  As the “wealth” of your pet is dependent on how many people within your network also play this game, the larger your network of players, the better.  To ensure their network grows, they post on the Pet Society forum that they are open to accepting friends.  A friend of mine went from 25 friends on Facebook to 363 friends in less than a week…..the balance of “friends” all being players.  A female friend of mine got a similar number of new “friends” just by posting a sexy picture of herself on her profile.  It drew friend invites from men like honey to bees.  There was a study (I forget from where) that found that people on social media sites with more than 200 friends are narcissistic though!

 

The second question is a little harder to answer and is also dependent on the sites you use.  The first question you have to ask yourself is what you want from being part of this social media network.  If the aim is just to link with people you already interact with frequently in the real world, then it is probably worth blocking your profile from being seen by others.  If you want to reach out to those whom you know from a long long time ago, then I would suggest putting sufficient information on your profile to identify yourself, but not so much that it could be embarassing.  I like the way Facebook does it.  It only shows your name, picture and how many mutual friends you have.  If you don’t recognize the picture, odds on its not the person you know.  By tightly controlling your profile information, you effectively limit the number of people you can reach out to.  In the minds of some Social Media users this is sacrilegious, but the truth is I would recommend such an approach for new users who are testing the ground and especially for younger users who may have less maturity and understanding of how to handle certain degenerates who proliferate on these sites.

 

There are many studies done on social networks (the offline/real world kind) and every study I have read states that a normal person can develop deep relationships with at most 180 – 200 people at any one time.  On Social Media sites, this is actually lower.  It may appear counter intuitive, but the need to maintain your profile online to a wider contact group actually leaves you less time to interact significantly with more than about fifty people at any one time.  As with all social networking, the there is always a depth vs breadth tradeoff and only you can determine what balance you want to strike.

Questions about Social Media that You Were Afraid to Ask…..1

I have had many interactions with groups of people in the last year on the subject of Social Media Networking.  The number one question I get at nearly EVERY meeting is “How do I/we/my company/they/my dog/my cat/etc…. make money from Social Media”.  Because thats so commonly asked, thats not the topic of this posting.  Instead, I thought to post on questions that people pose to me either when no one else is around or through email or even, in one case, through his dad (I jest not).  There are five common questions that people are afraid to ask (at least in Asia) when in a group.

This post will deal with the most common one….“What Social Media Networking platform should I use?”.  This is not exactly the phrasing, but its the gist of the query.  Its not as obvious as it may seem.  There are several factors to consider:

1)  What are most of my friends using?

2)  How do I interact with them?

3)  How do I know I am doing the best that I can?

The answer is not obvious and is actually dependent on where you operate.  In the US, some will tell you MySpace or Facebook, in Brazil and India, Orkut, in other parts of the world, Hi5 or some localized platform that caters to the language.  So even while Facebook has 175 million users as of end 2008 (I’m betting at least 30% are people adopting multiple personas on Facebook) and MySpace is a close second, the choice is not simply a matter of Facebook or MySpace.  I believe that the biggest consideration is what most of your friends are on.  After all, the main reason for Social Media Networking is to connect with friends.  Language is obviously a show stopper, but that aside, if most of the people you know are using Orkut then it makes little sense to build up to significant a profile in Facebook. 

Secondly, how do you interact with your friends?  If you want to show them pictures of your holiday on your Social Media profile and have them look at it there instead of boring them to death showing them slides over dinner, then you need to choose a platform that supports this (most do).  At a basic level, most platforms provide the basic interaction functions of messaging, picture libraries, comments and basic security functionality that allows limited viewership to specific groups in your contact list.  More sophisticated plugins are available such as games, tests, etc…..on some sites like Facebook.  

The third component is maybe peculiar to Singapore.  I know the sentiment is prevalent globally, but so far, I have only heard the concept taking the form of an adjective in Singapore.  The term is “Kiasu” and is derived from a Chinese dialect Hokkien to denote someone who is afraid to lose out.  You know, those morons who stand in line for opening day tickets to Star Wars, etc…..  The fear is that having invested time and energy to build a profile and network on one platform, they find that another platform offers them so much more but are too “unmotivated” to switch their whole personas over.  Well folks, welcome to the real world.  No one can predict what social media platform will make it or not.  Just two years ago, MySpace was the biggest thing around, now its Facebook, who knows what it’ll be later.  The only way is to stay current on developments within Social Media and keep testing new services that come out.   
In case you were wondering….I use and create content on Facebook, LinkedIn, Twitter, WordPress and Blogspot.  I have accounts with MySpace, Youtube, SlideSorter, Ortuk, Socialtrak, Ning, Flickr, Picasa, etc…..but seldom update my profile there.

The next post will be on the question of “Now I have a Profile on a Social Media Platform….how do I protect myself??”

Facebook Stream – Twitter beater or Waste of Time?

Mark Z, the founder of Facebook recently announced the launch of Facebook Stream, a service that would allow Facebook users to obtain real time updates of their friends’ activities in Facebook.  Having failed to buy out Twitter, this latest strategy is obviously designed to take them head on….if you can’t buy ’em…..beat ’em at their own game.

But there are fundamental differences in the two services that lead me to believe this is another one of Facebook’s mis-steps.  Just taking myself as an example, I keep a bare bones profile on Twitter.  The aim of that service in my mind is to connect with groups of people who might be interesting and who might in turn find me interesting.  I follow Barack Obama, some consumer brands, etc….to get sound bite updates of whats going on.  Obviously there are some people I do know who follow me and whom I follow, but their updates are of less interest to me!

My Facebook profile though is different.  My connections on Facebook all have a more substantial social link with me than those on Twitter.  Though there might be nothing embarrassing on my profile, I do not easily accept friend requests from people I do not know unless there is some reason for the request (eg.  we play the same game on Facebook).  I cannot imagine transferring all my Twitter contacts to Facebook and while I have used security settings on Facebook to group friends and keep them out of some parts of my profile, I think its way too much of a hassle to do it just for the same privileges I already get with Twitter.  Besides, my Twitter posts are automatically updated to my Facebook profile by FriendFeed.

I can understand why Facebook wants the Twitter customer though.  While I log into Facebook maybe three times a day, my Twitter connection is on all day, and I can post and receive on my mobile.  Imagine the marketing information Facebook can collect from me if I maintain an almost full time connection….to say nothing of the marketing crap they can push out to me in real time.  I think the convenience of a single sign in vs the inconvenience of a mass of marketing messages pushed out to me is a poor trade off and I will maintain separate accounts.

 

Tong Hsien-Hui

http://twitter.com/hhtong

Can the Music you listen to determine if you are smart?

I came across this chart developed by a Caltech grad student, Virgil Griffith where he built a chart correlating musical preferences (by band or composer) against their SAT scores.  Now this isn’t scientific by any means.  Even the premise that SAT scores correlate with intelligence isn’t clear, so I don’t think this was meant to be published in the latest medical journals.

But its a fun chart to review and see where you finally end up.  For those who aren’t familiar with the SATs, its an American high school leaving test which comprises 2 papers.  One on math, the other on english.  Its all multiple choice but has various sections testing your mathematical and english skills.  You can get a maximum of 800 points on each paper and the highest score you can get is 1600 for both.  

Based on the “research”, it appears that those who like Beethoven come out way ahead of those who like any other kind of music.  The losers are those who like Lil Wayne and its interesting to see that those who like Rap actually come out ahead of those who like Pop.  The spread looks a bit doctored to me.  After all, I find it hard to believe that ALL those who like Beethoven had scores that fit within that narrow range.  I suppose if taken in fun, this is a useful conversation piece and certainly a social ice breaker!

For those who are wondering where I would fit?  I kinda like Maroon 5, Bon Jovi, Pearl Jam, the Eagles, U2…..classical wise, I prefer Bach over Beethoven……I did my SATs so many years ago I can’t really remember what I got.  It was somewat above 1400 I think 🙂

 

Tong Hsien-Hui

http://twitter.com/hhtong

What to eat and what not to eat…in America

Now I don’t consider myself a fussy or even careful eater, but I always  felt that there are places I should or should not eat at simply because I would feel just bad after a meal there.  This is especially the case in the US whenever I go there on business trips.  I always used to return to Singapore feeling ill and bloated, inevitably dieting for almost a week to clear my system.  Given that the frequency of my travel to the US can sometimes be up to 20 times a year, this is not a trivial problem.

Its been four years since I started travelling there so extensively, and obviously I have tried various ways to work around this problem from not eating (doesn’t work….I end up babbling in business meetings) to eating smaller portions (didn’t seem to work either….still felt sick as a dog on my return).  Its a given that I have to eat out whenever I travel and inspite of what some of you may be thinking, I am fortunate enough to be able to afford not having to visit McDonalds or Pizzahut for every meal.  Obviously a fast food diet for a week is an inevitable recipe for disaster (see “Upsize Me” for more details!).  That said, I can’t afford to eat at Per Se or the French Laundry every meal either.  So its somewhere in between.

I’ve been looking this issue up and this site actually has some great analysis of what NOT to eat in the US (http://www.menshealth.com/eatthis/16-Restaurant-Industry-Secrets/index.php).  I can subscribe to most of the stuff there, but more importantly, I figured out what could be my problem.  Checking the calorie and fat listings for drinks, I realized that this could have been the source of my problem.  And not the alcoholic drinks either.  Have you ever been in a meeting and been asked if you want a coffee from the Starbucks downstairs?  I get that at every meeting I attend.  Averaging 3-4 meetings a day, thats 3-4 high calorie, high fat Lattes a day.  Multiplied by 5 days and I start to see a crack of daylight.  Basically, I can starve myself during meals, but I have to be careful of the drinks in between too.  Man, life is hard.  Anyway, will try this on my next visit and see how it goes.  Wish me luck!

 

Tong Hsien-Hui

http://twitter.com/hhtong

Cat Slides in a Box

I actually saw this Youtube clip a couple months back but since I hadn’t started this blog at the time, I thought I would post it for the benefit of those who like cats.  When I was first given the link, I didn’t think much of it.  After all, cats sliding all over the place is pretty much par for the course when we are talking about felines.  What struck me though was how silly this animal really was.  He/she (I dunno) is fat, chubby, well fed, contented and absolutely playful.  I love seeing those fat stubby hind paws sticking out from the empty carton and that furry tail waving in the air like the national flag.

So there not having been anything really interesting in the last few days, this is a cute clip designed to make all cat lovers say “awwww….”

 

Tong Hsien-Hui

A Restaurant that really knows what YOU want!

I’ve been criticized recently that my posts have been far too serious.  I assume that for serious they mean dead dull.  Well, for this post I thought I would lighten things up by writing about a restaurant a friend of mine recently visited in the US.  At the risk of sounding prejudiced, I observed that the profile and menu of this restaurant would only be successful in the US.  Thats not to say I wouldn’t go….in fact this sounds like a little piece of heaven to me!

 

Anyway, the name of this diner is The Heart Attack Grill.  Its located in Chandler, Arizona (near Phoenix) and its main menu features humongous burgers and lard fried chips.  The name of the burgers say it all….they range from the Single Bypass Burger to the Quadruple Bypass Burger.  The Quadruple Bypass is truly a culinary obscenity.  Comprising 4 huge beef patties weighing a kilo of beef and an estimated 8000 calories, it is the burger of burgers.  Together with chips fried in lard, it is a heart attack waiting to happen.  The incentive is that if you do finish the burger, you get pushed out in a wheel chair by a waitress dressed in a nurse’s uniform (I use the term nurse’s uniform loosely….I have never seen a nurse wear that kind of clothes except in my dreams).

 

The restaurant has been heavily criticized for pandering to an obese population and encouraging unhealthy eating (they also offer unfiltered cigarettes on their menu).  It was featured in a French documentary probably to highlight the decadent eating habits of Americans.  But get this.  To most guys, this is like heaven on earth.  I mean big greasy burgers, delicious lard fried chips, beer, unfiltered cigarettes…..I would move there in a New York minute if I didn’t already have diet related problems.  In fact, the possibility of dying early because of the diet is a bonus….who needs to worry about savings, 401Ks, etc…..if you know your ticker is going to stop in a couple years of that diet.  So to all those food purists out there, I say….lets give The Heart Attack Grill a Michelin star and a standing ovation for knowing what the customer really wants.  Oh and those pretty nurses don’t hurt either!

 

Tong Hsien-Hui

You can see their webpage at http://www.heartattackgrill.com/index.html and no, they didn’t pay me a dime to write this.  I just seriously commend them for moving in the opposite direction from everyone else.