Yesterday, the Guardian in the UK published a “research” report by a 15 year old intern from Morgan Stanley listing out how teens consume media. It created a storm of controversy with opinions swinging from “revelation of the decade” to “piece of worthless trash”. As a quick summary, part of his “earthshaking” revelation was:
– Most teenagers are not regular listeners of radio
– Teenagers do not watch a consistent amount of TV..it depends on the season (programs)
– No teenager of his acquaintance regularly reads the newspaper
– Wii is the most popular gaming console
– Most teenagers have Twitter accounts but don’t use it regularly as they prefer sms being more private and cheaper
– Most teenagers are reluctant to pay for music. Even iTunes is too expensive.
– Teenagers tend to go to the cinema more frequently in their early teens than in their later teens
– Teens prefer mobiles with large capacity for music (Sony Ericsson was cited as an example)
The problem with this report is that it lacked any supporting data to demonstrate its validity. Critics were quick to say that the lack of supporting information meant that it wasn’t possible to validate any of the statements made. In this era of superficial data gathering to support spurious facts, it was said that the lack of any real research data showed that none of the statements made had any basis in fact.
To these so-called experts, I say bull. Having been a data analyst before, I know how flimsy the premise for drawing any real conclusion from a set of data is. There are too many inherent biaises in data gathering, not just relating to the where and how. In the paradox of Schroedinger’s Cat, the act of observation changed the outcomes. Similarly, the act of gathering this information inherently changes the conclusions that can be made from the data. Ironically those who were the sharpest critics were those who had the most to lose (so called Social Media experts and Twitter specialists). Twitter is such an anonymous application that I would question very closely any conclusions drawn from research data on Twitter. For instance, it is not difficult to create many Twitter accounts and put in any age you want, then to join a service like WeFollow.com and quickly accumulate thousands of followers, none of whom are of any value.
So lets examine the boy’s statement impartially as logical thinking adults:
– Why and under what circumstances would teenagers listen to the radio? As an adult, I only listen to the radio when driving and on the way to work, and even then I have the option of my iPod. The radio programs just don’t interest me and the talking just makes it worse. I would listen only to maybe catch a song I haven’t heard in a long time. So is this possibly an accurate statement? YES
– No one other than a rootless vagabond watches a consistent amount of TV everyday. There are programs we want to watch and programs we don’t. During the football season, I watch more football on Saturday. In the off season, I don’t. Is this a reasonable statement then? YES
– No teenager of his acquaintance regularly reads the paper? I would expand that to say no one to my knowledge consistently reads the paper other than those whose job it is to read it. Otherwise most people get their news from online papers, blogs, etc…. So, YES, it is a very possible statement.
– Well I won’t challenge the issue of Wii….I think this is the one statement that is supported with very real data.
– Teenagers don’t like Twitter. Well so don’t a lot of people. Real research has shown that as many as 80% of Twitter users don’ regularly update their account. Since this is data that is less subject to biase, I am willing to consider it validity. Given that only 20% regularly tweet, then it is not hard to draw the conclusion that kids just don’t use it. Sure, some do, but then again, we are looking at the bigger body of teens than just a select few. In fact I would speculate with substantial data to support me that NO age group consistently tweets. Its just a few tweeting 80% of all tweets. So I would say, YES, it is a possibly valid statement.
– Teens don’t like to pay for music? Who the heck LIKES to pay for music? And anyone who was a normal regular teenager would know how expensive $1 a song can be when your allowance is small. This is the most obvious YES of them all.
– Again, teens preferring to go to the cinema in their early teens vs their later teens is something of an obvious statement. I think bars allow patrons above the age of 18 to go in…nuff’ said. YES.
– Teens prefer mobiles with a large capacity for music. Since they don’t listen to radio they need to listen to something. And since iPhones are maybe too expensive for most teens, Sony Ericsson which allows you to play all those ripped off music makes sense. YES again.
So looking at it logically instead of screaming about lack of supporting data, it appears that what the kid says makes sense. I wouldn’t plan my marketing program around it, but I could do a lot worse than to take those assumptions and apply them for specific programs. I can tell you what though….if I were to take the opposite as true, I am guaranteed to fail, and I know most marketers worth their salt know that too. So give the kid a break.
Some Meowsings...... 