A few weeks ago, a pirated version of a pre-release of the blockbuster Wolverine movie generated a lot of hype both on and offline. Fans were able to download pirated versions of the movie, albeit a version missing some special effects and touch-ups (apparently straps could be seen on the actors when performing acrobatics), on the internet, and close to 4 million downloads were recorded.
The studio, Fox, were understandably angry at the piracy and vowed to find the culprits responsible. Their fear was that with so many people having seen the movie before its release, the movie would not be able to hit its projected numbers. They need not have feared. In the past weekend, the movie grossed close to $160 million worldwide, topping its production cost of $130 million. A tidy profit for a movie in its FIRST weekend. In fact the figure would have been higher if not for the closure of theatres in Mexico and the fear of transmission of swine flu in other parts of the world. Other factors such as major basketball matches in Boston and Chicago were also mentioned by a Fox executive, obviously delighted with the way the movie has performed.
So given the case, what was the real impact of the pirated version being leaked? Did Wolverine actually gain more free publicity as a result of the media circus that went on for almost a week after the leak? Would the attendance have been higher if the leak had not occured? Lets look at the three possible outcomes:
1) The movie grossed LESS than it would have if the pirated version had not been released
This pre-supposes that all those who watched the pirated version did not subsequently go and see the actual movie in the theatre. I personally don’t think this is the right conclusion to draw from the issue. There are a lot of reasons why moviegoers have stopped going to movies. The recession across the globe has killed millions of jobs and most people have been tightening their belts in the face of reduced paychecks or in the worst case, no paychecks. Movies are a luxury good. If the satisfaction gained from watching the pirated version was the same as going to a movie, I would predict a significant dropoff in the early takings upon launch. After all, downloading isn’t the only means of transmitting the pirated movie. It could also have been copied, shown among big groups of friends, borrowed, etc….The 4 million downloads could potentially have reached many millions of people more virally.
2) The movie grossed the SAME as it would have if the pirated version had not been released
This would imply that the pre-release had no effect on the attendance for the actual release. I don’t quite think this is right either. However, it could be the correct conclusion given that those who downloaded the movie were more likely to be fans of the movie and would have gone to see it anyway. I’m pretty sure that to download a movie, you need to be a big fan as there are a lot of issues to consider; the prospect of piracy, the download time, the poor quality, the possibility of downloading a virus, etc…. I’m not that big a fan and didn’t bother. Neither did I care to watch the pirated version even though it was readily available. When I went to see the movie, I heard a number of people watching it discussing and comparing it to the pirated one…so if you were to ask me, at a minimum, Fox didn’t lose many dollars from the fiasco.
3) The movie grossed MORE than it would have if the pirated version had not been released
Some Meowsings...... 